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Date: |
September 15, 2026 |
16 |
Title
Receive Presentation on the Draft Economic Impact Study and Recommendations on the Tijuana River Sewage Crisis (Districts: All)
End
Overview
On September 9, 2025 (17), the San Diego County Board of Supervisors (Board) directed the Chief Administrative Officer to fund and implement an Economic Impact Study assessing the full scope of losses caused by the Tijuana River sewage crisis, including impacts to small businesses, property values, and regional tourism, to strengthen future funding and mitigation efforts. Following the issuance of a request for quotes and a comprehensive evaluation of all submitted proposals, ECOnorthwest was selected to conduct the Economic Costs and Impacts of the Tijuana River Sewage Crisis study. Their project plan demonstrated a clear, methodical approach tailored to the complexities of this issue, and their team brought extensive experience and strong qualifications directly relevant to the work.
While the full report will not be completed until October, ECOnorthwest’s draft preliminary findings describes multiple pathways through which increased pollution has affected the regional economy, including prolonged beach water closures, reduced tourism and recreation, impacts to local businesses, property values, tax revenues, public health costs, population and workforce patterns, and public-school funding. It is estimated that the sewage crisis reduces San Diego County’s regional economic output by between $125.6 million and $503.5 million annually, with a discounted cumulative 20-year impact projected between $1.9 billion and $7.9 billion. The draft findings also include recommendations intended to improve communication and public awareness, support affected businesses and communities, strengthen regional and binational coordination, and advocate for major infrastructure and long-term system reliability. The portions released to date are unlikely to change; however, the final report will incorporate additional analyses that are still underway.
Today’s recommended action is for the Board to receive a presentation on the draft preliminary findings of the Economic Costs and Impacts of the Tijuana River Sewage Crisis study in response to the Board’s September 9, 2025 (17), direction. A complete and final report will be available in October.
Body
Recommendation by Chief Administrative Officer:
Receive a presentation with the draft preliminary findings of the Economic Costs and Impacts of the Tijuana River Sewage Crisis study in response to the Board’s September 9, 2025 (17), direction.
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Equity Impact Statement
The communities most directly affected by the Tijuana River sewage crisis include areas with socioeconomic and demographic characteristics that may increase vulnerability to economic and environmental disruptions. The draft study identifies a primary study area with approximately 155,265 residents and 47,759 households. The study reports higher unemployment, a higher share of renters and cost-burdened renter households, lower educational attainment, and a higher share of households with incomes below $75,000 compared with the overall region. Presenting the draft findings supports a more complete understanding of how the crisis affects communities that have experienced prolonged exposure to pollution and related economic disruption.
Sustainability Impact Statement
Presentation of the draft findings supports the County of San Diego’s efforts to understand and address the long-term environmental, economic, and community impacts of the Tijuana River sewage crisis. The study provides information that can help guide investments and policy actions intended to improve environmental conditions, community well-being, economic resilience, and the long-term sustainability of affected communities.
Fiscal Impact
There is no fiscal impact associated with today’s presentation on the economic impacts of the Tijuana River sewage crisis. There will be no change in General Fund cost and no additional staff years.
Business Impact Statement
The draft study identifies significant pathways through which the sewage crisis has and may continue to affect businesses, including reduced beach visitation and tourism, lower customer activity, business disinvestment, and changes in business starts. Business survey respondents reported revenue impacts and indicated that continued conditions could result in reduced staffing, lost income, closure, or relocation. Draft recommendations include expanding economic-development and technical assistance for affected businesses, promoting destinations and activities that remain available during beach water closures, supporting events that increase foot traffic, connecting businesses with financial and marketing resources, and promoting South Bay assets and investment opportunities.
Advisory Board Statement
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Background
The Tijuana River sewage crisis has affected communities and coastal areas in the South Bay for decades. Sewage and other pollutants carried through the Tijuana River watershed have contributed to prolonged beach water closures, degraded water and air quality, public health concerns, reduced recreational access, and economic disruption in affected communities.
On September 9, 2025 (17), the San Diego County Board of Supervisors (Board) approved an item entitled, “Enhancing Regional Efforts and Federal Advocacy to Advance Solutions to the Tijuana River Sewage Crisis.” As part of that action, the Board directed the Chief Administrative Officer to fund and implement an Economic Impact Study assessing the full scope of losses caused by the sewage crisis, including impacts to small businesses, property values, and regional tourism, to strengthen future funding and mitigation efforts.
The resulting Economic Costs and Impacts of the Tijuana River Sewage Crisis study is designed to identify and measure economic costs and impacts associated with the crisis and to provide evidence supporting a proactive approach to addressing those impacts. The draft methodology acknowledges that certain impacts can be monetized and directly attributed to the sewage crisis. It further recognizes that additional impacts can be quantified, though not reliably converted into monetary terms or conclusively linked to the crisis. Still others can be described or identified but cannot be appropriately quantified with the information currently available.
The draft analysis identifies a series of negative economic impacts, including worsening water and air quality and prolonged beach water closures caused by increased sewage flows. These conditions have, in turn, contributed to reduced tourism and recreation, lost recreation value, costs to local businesses, property value declines, decreased transient occupancy tax revenues, increased public health and water treatment costs, population outmigration, and potential reductions in public school funding. The findings also identify potential impacts to public schools, with impacted districts experiencing larger reductions in enrollment and average daily attendance than other school districts in the region. Government expenditures associated with addressing the crisis are another component of the preliminary analysis. The study identifies approximately $1.3 billion in government spending to date based on various government reports, documents, websites, and news sources.
Preliminary analysis indicates that the sewage crisis is causing substantial regional economic losses, with annual reductions in San Diego County’s economic output estimated between $125.6 million and $503.5 million and discounted cumulative 20-year impacts ranging from $1.9 billion to $7.9 billion (in 2025 dollars). These estimates should be viewed as indicating the potential scale of economic effects, not as final damage determinations.
Community and stakeholder engagement conducted for the study further illustrates these impacts on residents and businesses. This engagement took multiple forms, including virtual meetings with stakeholder discussion groups. These sessions gathered qualitative data such as anecdotes, stories, and lived experience. Invited stakeholders included municipal officials, environmental regulators, business leaders, chamber of commerce representatives, health experts, and community leaders. Additional community input was gathered via an online portal with four targeted surveys that were heavily promoted through multiple channels. Participants in the discussion groups and survey respondents reported reduced recreational activity, shorter or less frequent visits to impacted areas, concerns about health and quality-of-life, losses in business revenue, decreased staffing needs, and the potential for business closure or relocation if current conditions persist.
The draft recommendations include providing consistent real-time communication to the affected communities across agencies and jurisdictions, providing support for affected businesses through promotional and technical assistance activities, strengthening regional and binational coordination, and advocating for long-term infrastructure reliability. The findings also recommend support for the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce’s 5-Pillar Framework, predictable funding for operations and maintenance, preventive maintenance and monitoring, and a coordinated binational approach that moves the region from reactive repairs toward proactive system management.
The findings and recommendations presented today remain preliminary until the final report by ECOnorthwest is delivered in October 2026. Additional analysis and refinement are underway, including further evaluation of recreation and tourism losses, air-quality-related public health costs, property assessed values, and public-school funding implications. By receiving an update on the draft findings, the Board will have an opportunity to review the study’s current analysis and recommendations while the work is finalized. Receipt of today’s presentation on the draft preliminary findings does not constitute adoption of the findings or recommendations and does not authorize implementation of future actions requiring separate Board approval. The final report may include recommendations that, subject to the Board’s future consideration and direction, may require funding.
Linkage To The County Of San Diego Strategic Plan
Today’s action to receive the draft preliminary findings of the Economic Costs and Impacts of the Tijuana River Sewage Crisis study supports the “Equity” and “Community” Strategic Initiatives in the County of San Diego’s 2026-2031 Strategic Plan by providing data and analysis that can inform efforts to improve community quality of life, advance environmental justice, strengthen economic resilience, and protect the health and well-being of residents and businesses affected by the Tijuana River sewage crisis.
Respectfully submitted,
Ebony N. Shelton
Chief Administrative Officer
Attachment(s)
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